The proliferation of large-scale conditional and unconditional cash transfers in emerging economies necessitates novel measurement frameworks that move eyond administrative delivery tracking to capture complex socio-economic impacts. In July 2023, the Government of Karnataka implemented five major ‘guarantee schemes’ designed to alleviate poverty through cash transfers and targeted utility subsidies. This paper establishes an evaluation framework to assess these schemes, shifting the analytical lens toward household welfare, labour market dynamics, and macroeconomic opportunity costs. We use a high-frequency monthly panel dataset of approximately 6,000 households in Karnataka, contrasted against a control group of 12,000 households from bordering states (January 2022 to December 2024) to measure both direct consumption smoothing, and structural economic shifts. While the data indicates successful, large-scale consumption smoothing, we find negligible improvements in structural indicators, such as women’s intra-household agency and female Labour Force articipation Rates. We argue that comprehensive scheme evaluation must prioritise structural and macroeconomic indicators to prevent welfare programs from inadvertently substituting necessary, long-term economic growth strategies.
Citation:
Measurement and assessment of Karnataka’s 2023 guarantee schemes, Sanjuktha B Athreya, Utkarsh Narain, Geetika Palta and Susan Thomas, Aarthika Charche - FPI Journal of Economics & Governance, Volume 10 No 2, July - December 2025, Pages 42-51
